Sources
Real series held here: Mann et al. 2009 AMO, the ERSST splice, Steinhilber TSI, Gray 2004 AMO, SILSO sunspots, Crowley and Unterman 2013 sulfate, and HadCRUT5. Modeled, because no author CSV exists: western-Med PDSI, SRI, GTA25, and TCC. The year-to-year cloud wiggles are a methodological recreation, not a digitised Fig. 6H.
Download the files
A download is the copy this lab holds. An original-source link is the archive the number came from. CRU cloud cover, the OWDA grid, ERA5 rainfall, and the Carcaixent diary were not ingested, so they have a link and no file.
| Series | Status | Get it |
|---|---|---|
| Mann et al. 2009 AMO | Ingested | DownloadOriginal source |
| ERSST v5 AMO, detrended | Ingested, splice after 2006 | DownloadOriginal source |
| Gray et al. 2004 AMO | Ingested, comparison only | DownloadOriginal source |
| Steinhilber et al. 2009 TSI | Ingested | DownloadOriginal source |
| SILSO sunspot number | Ingested | DownloadOriginal source |
| Crowley & Unterman 2013 NH sulfate | Ingested. Dots only; curve not recomputed | DownloadOriginal source |
| HadCRUT5 global temperature | Ingested. Not used as GTA25 | DownloadOriginal source |
| Lab annual recreation | Modeled. Not the authors’ CSV | DownloadOriginal source |
| Bias-slider effects | This lab | Download |
| Model card | Equation, envelopes, what is fake | DownloadOriginal source |
| CRU TS 4.06 cloud cover | Not ingested | Original source |
| Old World Drought Atlas | Not ingested | Original source |
| ERA5 rainfall | Not ingested | Original source |
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Real Mann et al. 2009 series (with the archived uncertainty), spliced to ERSST after 2006. The splice and the triple use of this index are audited on the Mann 2009 page. Positive values are the warm phase this model treats as clearer skies. The comparison buttons — count the index once, or replace it with a detrended AMO — sit on the atlas and methods charts, not on this ingested series.
Soil moisture (PDSI) and storms (SRI)
Wetter land and a livelier storm climate raise the water-cycle indicator. The LIA is the wet, stormy maximum; the late 20th century dries hard in the climate index. That drop is not a like-for-like drought ranking: the modern points sit on land whose rivers have been dammed, transferred, and pumped.
Solar irradiance
Steinhilber TSI. Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima sit inside the cloudy LIA; the late-20th-century grand maximum sits on the clear modern sky.
CRU TS 4.06 total cloud cover
Calibration target
Harris et al., Climatic Research Unit. Paper extracts western-Mediterranean TCCfG from 1935, the first year the authors treat as homogeneous.
Not downloaded as a grid here; an analog series is generated from the fitted model plus observational noise for 1935–2022.
EUMETSAT CM-SAF CLARA cloud fraction
Spatial pattern (Fig. 3)
Satellite climatology via KNMI Climate Explorer. Southern Iberia and Maghreb are persistently clearer; northern Iberia and southern France cloudier, annual means rarely above 0.50.
Pattern encoded in the schematic map, not the native grid.
Mann et al. 2009 AMO reconstruction
Primary millennial predictor
Mann, Zhang, Rutherford et al., Science 326:1256–1260. KNMI series Mann_AMO. The archived 2σ band includes zero in most years, and 1850–2006 is PC-filtered instrumental data that keeps late-20th-century warming a detrended AMO removes. Mann’s 1998–99 reconstructions did not ship a complete archive; a CENSORED run without the bristlecones was not in the paper. Treat this file as an author’s weighed history, not as an unbiased oscillation. Full note on the Mann 2009 page.
Downloaded from NOAA / KNMI (amoall.txt). Spliced to ERSST after 2006 with a +0.34 °C offset. Also written into the synthetic PDSI and GTA, so it is not an independent predictor.
ERSST v5 AMO (van Oldenborgh definition)
Instrumental splice after 2006
Used to carry the Mann series through 2022 after offset matching on 1980–2006.
Downloaded from KNMI Climate Explorer.
Gray et al. 2004 tree-ring AMO
Independent AMO check
Not the paper’s predictor, added here as a robustness overlay.
Downloaded from NOAA Paleo.
Old World Drought Atlas (Cook et al. 2015)
Millennial PDSI field
The paper maps 95th-percentile PDSI as a water-balance indicator (Fig. 6A–C) and uses PDSI as the soil-moisture term. MCA drier than LIA in the Atlas Mountains (Cedrus atlantica) and wetter LIA in Moroccan speleothems. A “worst drought in 500 years” reading of this atlas compares climate moisture with a landscape whose rivers have since been dammed and transferred. The trees do not record the canals.
Regional western-Med PDSI is reconstructed here from the published hydroclimate constraints plus the AMO teleconnection, not from the OWDA netCDF. The post-1970 drying is a prescribed envelope, not a split between climate and hydraulic engineering.
UCAR instrumental scPDSI
Fig. 5B spatial correlation
Summer scPDSI correlated against CRU TCCfG during calibration.
Correlation sign used; grid not ingested.
ERA5 storm rainfall index (SRI)
Interaction term with PDSI
Paper Fig. 5A. SRI captures summer convective storms that couple soil moisture to cloud.
Millennial SRI is modeled from PDSI, LIA storminess, and volcanic pulses.
Steinhilber et al. 2009 TSI
Solar forcing
The paper invokes the ~1000-yr Eddy cycle and the MCA–MWE solar contrast. Solar is not an explicit term in Eq. 2; it acts through temperature and, in our recreation, hydroclimate.
Downloaded from NOAA Paleo.
SILSO sunspot number
Modern solar envelope
Extends TSI past Steinhilber’s last node.
Downloaded from KNMI / WDC-SILSO.
Crowley & Unterman volcanic sulfate
Fig. 6G–H markers
Events above the 95th percentile (> 12 kg km⁻²) are plotted. Tambora (1815) is named as a turning point together with rising solar and a positive AMO.
Sigl-class magnitudes were a short encoded list inside the cloud equation. The dots on the atlas, and the file below, are the real Crowley & Unterman 2013 Northern Hemisphere sulfate record. The curve was not recomputed from it. Pinatubo’s flux in that file is 11 kg km⁻², under the paper’s cut of 12.
Global temperature anomaly, 25th percentile
Eq. 2 cold-tail term
Unusual choice: the model penalizes cloud cover when the cold tail of global temperature is high (i.e., when even cool years are relatively warm).
Energy-balance sketch from TSI, volcanoes, AMO imprint, and an anthropogenic ramp after 1850 — not PAGES 2k and not HadCRUT. HadCRUT5 global annual temperature is downloaded separately and is not substituted for this term.
Carcaixent documentary cloud notes
Pre-instrumental validation
Independent historical check that the reconstruction is not only a 20th-century fit.
Cited, not digitised.
Every term in the lab
Hover, focus, or tap. Each note has the textbook meaning first, then what this reconstruction actually does with the word.
AMO (Mann et al. 2009), ERSST AMO, Steinhilber TSI, Gray AMO and SILSO sunspots are the published observational/proxy series. PDSI, SRI and the TCC reconstruction apply the paper's equation and millennial constraints because the authors' exact predictor files are not bundled here. Treat year-to-year wiggles as a faithful methodological recreation, not a digitised copy of Fig. 6H.